WNBA SEMIFINALS: THE FINAL FOUR BEGIN THEIR FIGHT FOR THE FINALS

The 2026 WNBA playoffs have reached the semifinals, and the opening games present two very different battles.

New York Liberty travel to face the Atlanta Dream, while the Las Vegas Aces visit the Golden State Valkyries.

New York entered the playoffs as the No. 8 seed but produced one of the postseason’s biggest statements by sweeping top-seeded Minnesota. Atlanta also advanced without dropping a game, eliminating Washington to reach the semifinals.

Golden State and Las Vegas had more difficult routes. Both needed deciding Game 3 victories in the opening round, setting up a semifinal between Golden State’s highly rated defense and an Aces team led by A’ja Wilson.

SE360 QUICK EDGE

New York Liberty @ Atlanta Dream

Market shown: Atlanta Dream -4.5 @ 1.97
New York Liberty +4.5 @ 1.84

SE360 view: New York +4.5 deserves consideration

Atlanta owns home court and won two of three regular-season meetings, but New York's playoff performance against Minnesota showed why the eighth seed cannot be treated like an ordinary underdog.

Las Vegas Aces @ Golden State Valkyries

Market shown: Las Vegas Aces -1.5 @ 1.96
Golden State Valkyries +1.5 @ 1.84

SE360 view: Las Vegas -1.5 has the stronger early lean

The Aces swept all three regular-season meetings against Golden State. Las Vegas now brings championship experience and Wilson's dominant interior presence into a matchup with the Valkyries' elite defense.

NEW YORK LIBERTY @ ATLANTA DREAM

This may be the most intriguing matchup of the opening semifinal games.

Atlanta finished the regular season 30–14 and carries home-court advantage into the series. The Dream then dispatched Washington in two games in the opening round.

But New York arrives with momentum of its own.

The Liberty swept top-seeded Minnesota, with Breanna Stewart producing 34 points and 12 rebounds in Game 1 before Jonquel Jones delivered 21 points and 13 rebounds in Game 2.

Atlanta's Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray and Jordin Canada give the Dream multiple ways to create offense, while New York's Stewart-Jones combination provides the Liberty with considerable playoff experience and size.

The handicap therefore creates an interesting question: is Atlanta clearly more than four points better on its home floor?

SE360 isn't convinced that gap is comfortable enough to dismiss New York.

SE360 early lean: New York Liberty +4.5

LAS VEGAS ACES @ GOLDEN STATE VALKYRIES

Golden State owns home-court advantage, but the matchup history points strongly toward Las Vegas.

The Aces won all three meetings during the regular season, including victories by 10, five and 19 points.

And then there is A’ja Wilson.

Wilson averaged 26.2 points during the regular season and entered the semifinals averaging 32.0 points through the first round. Against Golden State during the regular season, she averaged 25 points and 12.7 rebounds.

Golden State's answer begins with defense.

The Valkyries finished the regular season with the WNBA's top defensive rating, while Gabby Williams and Veronica Burton provide significant defensive pressure on the perimeter.

Golden State will need that defense at its best because Las Vegas can also turn to Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young when Wilson attracts extra attention.

At only -1.5 in the market shown, the price effectively asks Las Vegas to win the game rather than cover a substantial road handicap.

SE360 early lean: Las Vegas Aces -1.5

SE360 FINAL BOARD

🏀 New York Liberty +4.5 @ 1.84 — LEAN

The Liberty's playoff form and postseason experience make the points attractive despite Atlanta's home-court advantage.

🏀 Las Vegas Aces -1.5 @ 1.96 — STRONGER LEAN

Las Vegas has the head-to-head advantage, championship experience and arguably the most influential individual matchup in Wilson.

SE360 Preferred Side: Las Vegas Aces -1.5

These are early market views based on the prices shown at publication time. Odds can move before tip-off, and late injury or lineup information can materially change the assessment.

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